Line up with these 3 unlucky teams

Soriano takes lead as Red Storm top Niagara, go to 7-0

Our Action Network Luck Rankings are in for Week 12, and we have nine matchups featuring teams at least 10 places apart.

The unlucky teams from the Action Network Luck Rankings are 71-58-3 (54.9 percent) against the spread (ATS) overall. That improves to 37-29-1 (56 percent) when teams differ by at least 10 places and 20-15 (57.1 percent) when the difference is 16 or more since we started tracking in Week 3.

Here are the matchups we’re targeting for Week 12 (unluckier team listed first):

Packers (27) vs. Eagles (2)

Giffen: Washington and Indianapolis both covered against the Eagles in each of the past two weeks, with the Commanders winning outright.

I think the Packers can replicate the formula those teams rode to success: Run the ball.

The Packers are a better rushing team than passing, ranking fifth on the ground but just 16th through the air in DVOA.

Meanwhile, Philadelphia’s defense ranks 26th against the run and third against the pass. The Eagles are also missing rookie first-round defensive tackle Jordan Davis. He’s missed each of the past two games when teams covered against them.

Pick: Packers +6.5.

Raiders (23) vs. Seahawks (6)

Koerner: This was more of a lean early in the week, but definitely a situation I’m monitoring heading into the weekend.

The public is all over Seattle, with 68 percent of the action on them thus far.

The public has likely written off the Raiders despite coming off a win against Denver. It was Las Vegas’ first win in one-score games after going 0-6 in such contests prior to Week 11.

The Raiders have played much better than their 3-7 record indicates, and are in play here at a key number like +3.5.

I’d wait and see if LT Kolton Miller suits up before placing this bet.

Picks; Raiders +3.5.

Jaguars (32) vs. Ravens (8)

Giffen: Jacksonville is coming off its bye week and will be rested up against a Ravens team that failed to cover against the lowly Panthers.

Like the Raiders, the Jaguars are 1-6 in one-score games and have a record worse than their actual team strength.

The Jaguars have played like a team that should be slightly above .500 against a league-average opponent but sit at 3-7, which is why they are last in our Luck Rankings.

In fact, the Jaguars sit only a few percentage points behind the Ravens in third-order Pythagorean win percentage. That makes them only a 2-point dog in a neutral situation by that metric.

With home-field advantage, there’s plenty of value on the Jaguars.

Pick: Jaguars +3.5.

Nick Giffen and Sean Koerner analyze the NFL for Action Network.

At this time last year, Joel Soriano was benched, and his first season at St. John’s couldn’t have started worse.

A year later, he has become an invaluable part of the program, and is one of the most improved players in recent memory.

That trend continued Saturday afternoon. Despite the absence of Posh Alexander (concussion protocol) and off games from Andre Curbelo and David Jones, St. John’s knocked off Niagara, 78-70, behind Soriano’s sixth double-double of the season to remain undefeated at 7-0.

“I look back at last season a lot.” Soriano, a Yonkers native, said. “Last year, if I’m being honest, I wasn’t as confident as I am now. I feel like that plays a big part, and I’m working way harder than I was last year.”

After a long summer of getting into the best shape of his life, the 6-foot-11 Soriano has performed like an elite player early this season. The senior, who transferred from Fordham prior to last season, has given the Red Storm a new dimension as a consistent post-up threat. On Saturday, he pounded undersized Niagara inside, producing 21 points, on 7-for-14 shooting, and 19 rebounds.

Perhaps most importantly, Soriano is able to log major minutes because of his improved conditioning, which has enabled the player his teammates call “big beasty” to take a major step forward on the glass. He already has three games this season with at least 14 boards and is the nation’s leader in rebounding at 12.7 per game.

“Just goes to show that hard work pays off. But it’s only the beginning, it’s early in the season,” Soriano said. “I want to give credit to my coaching staff and my teammates for believing in me. I just want to keep my foot on the pedal.”

Reminded that he benched Soriano last year, coach Mike Anderson pointed to his improved work ethic and off-the-court discipline when it comes to his diet. Soriano’s roommate, Dylan Addae-Wusu, joked that they used to have to lock the refrigerator at night, but not anymore. Soriano, playing at a more muscular 260 pounds, is frequently in the gym early in the morning before classes, working out with associate head coach TJ Cleveland, and has added variety to his postgame ritual.

“I always [tell him], it’s amazing where you’ve come from,” Anderson said.

Soriano helped St. John’s survive a choppy performance in which it shot poorly from the field (39.4 percent), only went 3-for-15 on 3-point attempts and missed 15 free throws, coming off winning the Empire Classic title against Syracuse on Tuesday.

Jones, Montez Mathis, Dylan Addae-Wusu and O’Mar Stanley each had 10 points for St. John’s, off to its best start in the Anderson era.

Noah Thomasson scored 24 points for Niagara (3-3), which got as close as five with 8:11 left after trailing by 19. But St. John’s reeled off the next seven points and didn’t have to sweat the final minutes.

“We were a little bit sluggish as a whole. We didn’t have Posh — you could see if we don’t play with Posh, how much he means to us,” Soriano said. “I just like our defense has to get better. We have to bring our defense every game. We can’t slack off, especially on the defensive end. We just have to finish out games the whole way.”

➤ Alexander had concussion symptoms on Wednesday, a day after taking an elbow to the face against Syracuse. He was on the bench Saturday and in good spirits. Anderson joked that the junior point guard did a good job of serving as another coach. His status for Tuesday against LIU is uncertain.