No path to glory

LAS VEGAS — Even if his team achieves perfection in the regular season, Cincinnati coach Luke Fickell might not receive an invitation to the four-team College Football Playoff, a system which serves as the sport’s exclusive country club. Only the elite need apply.

It’s obvious something is wrong with the system, and something needs to change.

“I’ve long, long been an advocate of expanding the playoff,” VSiN’s Brent Musburger said. “I think the little guys should get a chance.”

The Cincinnati kids could be the best of the little guys this season. The Bearcats return 14 starters, including star quarterback Desmond Ridder, from a team that was sitting at 9-0 last year when playoff invites were handed out to Alabama, Clemson, Ohio State and Notre Dame.

It has been a similar story year after year. The fourteam playoff is essentially rigged to prevent teams from outside of the Power Five conferences (ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, SEC and Pac-12) from participating. Cincinnati competes in the American Athletic Conference, part of the Group of Five, a polite label for the lesser conferences.

BetMGM lists Cincinnati at 100/1 odds to win the national championship, but the truth is the Bearcats face odds deeper into triple digits simply because of the high hurdles they must clear just to get into the exclusionary playoff.

Outside of the usual favorites — Alabama (5/2), Clemson (9/2), Ohio State (6/1) and Oklahoma (8/1) — only a handful of teams are worth consideration on the college football futures board, where Cinderellas and sleeper teams do not have a realistic path to the playoff.

“I think Iowa State could climb into the mix,” Musburger said. “How’s that for a shock? I’m a huge, huge fan of [coach] Matt Campbell, and I think the Cyclones could be the surprise of the college football season.”

Iowa State of the Big 12 is posted at 25/1 odds. Some other Power Five contenders worth a look are Georgia (5/1), Texas A&M (30/1), LSU (35/1), Notre Dame (40/1), Oregon (40/1), North Carolina (50/1), Texas (50/1), USC (50/1) and Wisconsin (50/1).

Paul Stone, a Texas-based college football handicapper and VSiN contributor, said he ranks Alabama, Clemson, Ohio State, Georgia and Oklahoma as the top five teams in his power rankings. He also gives Iowa State, Texas A&M and perhaps the Pac-12 champion a shot at the four-team playoff.

“If you want to look down the board a little bit and buy a lottery ticket, then I’d take a small shot on Utah at 150/1,” Stone said. “The Utes will be greatly improved at quarterback with Baylor grad transfer Charlie Brewer. Plus they return a lot of experienced players on both sides of the ball and have one of the game’s most underrated coaches in Kyle Whittingham.”

Utah has a favorable Pac-12 schedule. Aside from playing at USC, the Utes get home games against Arizona State, Oregon and UCLA.

The bottom line is the college football futures board is currently a boring option for the betting public.

Since the inception of the four-team playoff at the end of the 2014 season, 20 of the 28 playoff spots have gone to four teams — Alabama (six), Clemson (six), Ohio State (four) and Oklahoma (four). The only other team with multiple appearances is Notre Dame (two). The other six spots went to Florida State, Georgia, LSU, Michigan State, Oregon and Washington.

If Cincinnati breaks through this year, it would be the first Group of Five team to reach the playoff. Fickell scheduled road games against two Power Five opponents — Indiana on Sept. 18 and Notre Dame on Oct. 2 — and the Bearcats must win both plus run the table to have any playoff shot.

An expanded playoff cannot come soon enough for most bettors and bookmakers. A 12-team playoff plan that was proposed in June could eventually spark more interest in a stale college football system.

“The 12-team model obviously creates a level of inclusion that currently does not exist,” Stone said. “Most fans love the underdog and the David versus Goliath stories, and the expanded playoff will give teams like Cincinnati and Boise State a shot at the Alabamas and Clemsons of the world.”

A 12-team playoff, still at least three years away, would open new opportunities for small-conference teams and trigger more diverse betting action on long shots.

“I think it’s pretty universal that we’re all looking forward to the playoff expanding,” said Vinny Magliulo, VSiN oddsmaker and veteran Las Vegas bookmaker. “There has not been as much play in the college football futures book. The NFL futures have taken more action.

“A bigger playoff will mean terrific business. When we get to the 12-team playoff, you have room to maneuver and it will definitely increase the wagering handle for the college football futures.”

Musburger’s money is on a team from Ohio this season, but it’s not Cincinnati.

“If I had to pick one team right now to win it all, I would take the Buckeyes,” Musburger said. “Hey, ask [Michigan coach] Jim Harbaugh how hard it is to beat Ohio State.”